Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 105.534157 120.605823 137.548417 158.097328 182.468328 210.599877 245.746721
2026-01-11 86.973729 106.510254 130.410480 162.141068 203.675037 256.914695 331.508279
2026-01-18 74.745314 96.231970 124.200528 163.951574 220.121006 298.416045 419.048565
2026-01-25 65.624307 87.855644 118.245574 163.876959 232.551985 335.305120 507.278127
2026-02-01 57.776474 79.811516 111.149931 160.380902 238.494338 362.675826 586.186952
2026-02-08 51.501954 73.059134 104.772287 156.580564 242.696145 387.245087 665.359792
2026-02-15 46.478170 67.483449 99.318844 153.174417 246.538673 411.287000 748.768702
2026-02-22 44.917989 66.923026 101.401734 162.077897 272.467105 478.959710 934.825841
2026-03-01 42.118965 64.082304 99.444351 163.741533 285.552741 525.046485 1089.492578
2026-03-08 39.766327 61.698892 97.924493 165.865411 299.686367 575.895603 1270.724484
2026-03-15 37.297179 58.872340 95.320487 165.595494 308.961425 618.343010 1445.541118
2026-03-22 36.496631 58.774392 97.415949 174.395351 338.177740 711.263981 1787.287145
2026-03-29 35.344212 58.027182 98.389953 181.411971 365.566371 808.587534 2190.460326
2026-04-05 34.056654 56.921786 98.588877 186.913312 390.768139 907.829542 2651.362139
2026-04-12 32.490151 55.162347 97.354496 189.221824 408.979662 994.040437 3116.501432
2026-04-19 30.802921 53.029730 95.172941 189.167252 421.430127 1067.965358 3580.577502
2026-04-26 28.839348 50.216833 91.375917 185.018795 422.766047 1109.977300 3944.134098
2026-05-03 27.020298 47.544003 87.622463 180.506507 422.385524 1146.945609 4311.520888
2026-05-10 25.410864 45.159579 84.249485 176.464542 422.573428 1186.026325 4716.768820
2026-05-17 25.262026 45.634124 86.865237 187.037591 465.620616 1382.746611 6069.248284
2026-05-24 24.361557 44.531189 86.018844 189.015561 484.339865 1501.169554 7115.485282
2026-05-31 23.566535 43.582935 85.419801 191.541779 505.318699 1636.227712 8407.111285
2026-06-07 22.606435 42.225295 83.797249 191.220665 517.445586 1741.579425 9626.917574